MUMBAI – 9 June 2016 – Asia Society was pleased to host a discussion on the global impact of the rapidly growing economy in the Asia-Pacific region. The programme centred on The World in 2050, edited by Harinder Kohli, CEO of Centennial Group International.

The evening’s discussion was opened by Governor Raghuram Rajan, Reserve Bank of India. He began by recalling what kinds of predictions were made in the 1960s and 1970s about today. Then, people had different focuses—colonizing Mars and creative methods for growing food to keep up with the world population. Enormous economic and social change has taken place since then, changes that the world could not have predicted, which Rajan compared to the “unknown unknowns” coined by Donald Rumsfield. He also contrasted linear and nonlinear change; the nonlinearity of growth makes it difficult to predict what the world will be like beyond the next 5 years. The Governor then touched on several of the issues facing both industrialized and developing countries, including technological advances and job loss, climate change, and a shrinking middle class. He notably discussed social and behavioural changes: emergence of women into the workforce changed the economic climate several decades ago, and, as we look to the future, we will see more elderly in the workforce as the average lifespan increases. Finally, Rajan spoke on global governance and the contrast between the desire for integration by developing countries and the push for greater sovereignty by industrialized countries.

Next, the panel’s moderator, Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist & Executive Director, J.P. Morgan, provided an overview of The World in 2050, indicated that the text is optimistic, and presented a set of counterarguments for Kohli to address, including stagnation in growth, deglobalization of trade, and increasing debt.

Kohli responded by discussing the various scenarios described in the book, including a pessimistic, centre, and two optimistic scenarios. Over the course of the evening, he spoke much about the technological frontier and how technology will influence the world economy over the next 35 years. When Chinoy asked about why productivity has not seemed to increase with technology, Kohli asserted that there is a time lag between product and services. Solutions for energy, climate change, and medicine are upcoming and will be solved through technology. He is optimistic that a lifestyle change towards less consumption in conjunction with advancing technology will allow for energy efficiency to accommodate the limited natural resources.

Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Indian Economist and Former Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, addressed the global economic changes both in the past and in the future. At the beginning of the programme, the audience was asked if they believed inequality is increasing or decreasing; a clear majority voted that it is increasing. Ahluwalia argued that global inequality is actually decreasing as the wealth of countries like China and India catches up with that of industrialized nations. However, polarization of wealth is increasing within industrialized countries as their middle classes lose jobs to people in developing countries. Ahluwalia finally presented a question of governance: is it better to have slower growth and less inequality or rapid growth and greater inequality?

As reported by Ellen Gao, Intern, Asia Society India Centre

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Watch the full programme (1 hour 35 minutes) below: