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South Asia After the Tests
Where Do We Go From Here? July 1, 1998
Roundtable Workshop
Contents
Foreword
Overview
Introduction
I. Motivations for
Testing and Domestic Political Implications
- India's Decision to Conduct Nuclear Tests
Pakistan's Decision to Conduct Nuclear Tests
Discussion
- India Tests as the Window of Opportunity Closes
Bureaucratic Origins of the Test
Strategic Factors not Domestic Politics Key to Explaining Tests
II. Next Steps:
Weaponization and Deterrence?
- Possibility of Weapons Use
Why Weaponization Should Be Avoided
- Stabilizing Nuclear Relations
Safety and Security
Weaponization and Policy
Real Time Monitoring Capability
Accommodation and Reassurance
- Discussion
III. Regional Stability
and Strategic Balance: Perspectives from East Asia
- Impact on Asia-Pacific Region
- Asia-Pacific Reaction
Japan's Reaction
- Geography and Pathology
Discussion
- Chinese Perspective on India's Nuclear Strategy
Dealing with the Tests
Japan and the Tests
India and FMCT
India's Missile Delivery System
IV. Economic Dimensions
of Tests
- India and Pakistan Should Focus on Weak Economies
- India's Economy
Pakistan's Economy
- Discussion
- Impact of Sanctions on India
Impact of Sanctions on Pakistan
Defense Expenditures in India and Pakistan
Conclusion
Economic Reforms After the Tests
Appendix: List of
Participants
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Foreword
On July 1, 1998, Asia Society, with the timely support of the Rockefeller Foundation and the Japan Foundation Center
for Global Partnership, convened a day-long workshop to examine the causes and consequences of India’s and Pakistan’s
testing of nuclear weapons in May 1998. The workshop discussed how the tests have affected the security scenario
in Asia, the global non-proliferation regime, India-Pakistan relations, and the political economy of both India
and Pakistan. Our hope was that better understanding of the questions would contribute to informed policy responses
to the momentous developments in South Asia.
Participants in the workshop, from the United States, India, Pakistan, Japan, and China, represented diverse specialties.
They included arms control experts, regional security specialists, nuclear scientists, political scientists, economists,
business people, and officials from the World Bank and the United Nations. The breadth of the participants’ expertise
and regional origins contributed to the comprehensive nature of the discussion and alternative interpretations
of the tests’ significance and impact.
Much of the discussion revolved around the questions of what measures should be taken to ensure stability and security
in the region. Many in the group felt that weaponization should not be a priority for India and Pakistan. Rather,
they should look toward improving their economic performance. This was an urgent priority before the tests, which
is underscored by the Asian financial crisis.
The Asia Society is a non-profit public education organization dedicated to increasing American understanding of
Asia. The Society routinely assembles leading Asian and American figures from the academic, media, business, and
government communities to exchange views on critical issues in U.S.-Asia relations.
We would like to thank the participants and Satu Limaye, rapporteur, for their efforts in making the workshop a
success. Also, the Society thanks the Rockefeller Foundation and the Japan Foundation Center for Global Partnership
without whose generous financial assistance this project would not be realized.
Marshall M. Bouton
Executive Vice President
Asia Society
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presented by
the Asia Society
with the support of the Rockefeller Foundation
and the Japan Foundation Center for Global Partnership
Rapporteur: Satu P. Limaye
The Policy and Business Programs Division of the Asia Society produces programs and publications to increase American
awareness of key issues in Asian affairs and to broaden the dialogue between Americans and Asians.
The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent those of the Asia Society.
Editor: Mai Shaikhanuar-Cota
Designer: Rayne Jadin Madison
Published by Asia Society
725 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10021-5088
www.asiasociety.org
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without
permission in writing from the Asia Society.
Copyright ©1999 by Asia Society.
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