Rapporteur, Satu Limaye

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SOUTH ASIA AND THE UNITED STATES

A NEW RELATIONSHIP?

Relations between the United States and the countries of South Asia are at a turning point. The end of the cold war, together with economic and political changes in the subcontinent, holds the promise of more constructive, balanced, and consistent U.S. ties with India, Pakistan, and the rest of the region. A new relationship opens the possibility of expanded efforts to cooperate in areas of common concern and mutual benefit.

This fresh approach will both require and lead to deeper engagement between the private and public sectors of the United States and the region. South Asia's emerging economic reforms, designed to increase economic growth and improve the condition of millions who live in poverty, have created extensive commercial opportunities for the United States. And the expansion of democracy in South Asia will strengthen the bond of shared values between the United States and the region.

Progress toward a new era in U.S.—South Asia relations will not be easy. Differing objectives and outlooks have made past U.S. engagement with South Asia episodic and often strained. This legacy will have to be surmounted. Despite the misunderstandings and difficulties in past relations, there is still a reservoir of goodwill in South Asia toward the United States. And in the United States, the growing community of South Asian Americans brings a new impetus and vital resource to the U.S.—South Asia relationship.

The new possibilities for South Asia—United States relations raise many questions. How will economic reform and political change in South Asia affect the United States? How do South Asians see the future of the region and the U.S. role in it? What policies and priorities should the United States adopt in its dealings with South Asia? Do our institutions, public and private, have the capacity to deal effectively with South Asia in a new era? This report seeks to address these questions.

AN OVERVIEW AND BRIEF HISTORY

South Asia comprises Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldive Islands, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The region contains over one billion people, one-fifth of the world's population, and population growth rates are among the highest in the world. South Asia occupies a significant geographical position. The air and sea routes that connect Europe and the Middle East with Southeast and East Asia pass through or near it. To the northwest are Afghanistan and the newly independent Central Asian Republics, and to the northeast the People's Republic of China.

The region is one of the poorest in the world and yet has hundreds of millions of middle-class citizens. Plagued by low levels of literacy, it nonetheless produces distinguished scientists, artists, and professionals. South Asia contains an awesome and bewildering diversity of languages, religions, and ethnicities, but is remarkably cohesive in terms of physical environment and natural resources. The countries share rivers, mountain systems, oceans, and ecological cycles such as the life-sustaining monsoon rains. The states of the region have their share of disputes, along with a deeply shared culture and history.

The prospect of a new departure in South Asia—United States relations must be set against a past often burdened by mistrust and sharply different objectives. During most of the post—World War II period, U.S. ties with India and Pakistan, the region's two major powers, vacillated between close embrace and uneasy distance. The U.S. interest in the region has risen and fallen, often abruptly, with cold war cycles, leaving an impression in South Asia of U.S. fickleness if not at times betrayal. Despite South Asia's having received the third largest amount of U.S. development assistance since 1945, South Asian attitudes toward U.S. involvement in the region have been deeply colored by regional rivalries and post-colonial fears of foreign domination. The autarkic economic policies of regional governments have prevented the development of U.S.—South Asian commercial ties to counterbalance political and security differences. Cultural misunderstanding and the complexity of the region's societies and development have further clouded perceptions on both sides.

AMERICA'S STAKE IN SOUTH ASIA

South Asia has rarely been high on the U.S. foreign policy agenda. In addition to being on the periphery of the cold war, South Asia has typically been viewed by American policymakers, opinion leaders, and citizens as fraught with problems: poverty, overpopulation, ethnic and religious conflict, and natural disasters. It has been seen as static, closed, and backward. While many Americans have been intrigued by the region's cultures and religions, most have concluded that South Asia is largely irrelevant to the United States.

Contrary to prevailing American perceptions, South Asia is a region of opportunity for the United States in both the short and long term. American businesses can benefit from the region's economic opening and growth. The U.S. government can expand cooperation with South Asian countries on many issues with relatively little additional effort and resources. American nongovernmental organizations, universities, and think tanks can broaden their agendas and impact through more extensive links with South Asian counterparts. South Asian nations are clearly open to, and even expect, greater involvement of the American public and private sectors in the region.

South Asia's importance to the United States must be seen in a broad, long-term perspective. This is a region where the issues likely to dominate international relations in the 21st century come together. South Asia's fate will increasingly influence that of the world. If South Asia achieves sufficiently rapid and sustainable economic growth, reduces poverty, expands democracy, prevents regional conflict and the use of weapons of mass destruction, protects its own and the global environment, limits population growth, advances human rights, and reduces narcotics trafficking and terrorism, many U.S. interests will be served. Conversely, little or no progress in South Asia toward these goals will mean a world of greater instability and danger. The magnitude of these possible negative effects will demand U.S. attention.

South Asia offers one of the most difficult test cases of how the United States will deal with post—cold war international challenges. One of the characteristics of the post—cold war era is the difficulty of defining where our vital long-term interests lie. For example, the future impact on the global environment of carbon dioxide emissions generated by the expanding economic activity of more than one billion people in South Asia may be as critical to American interests as the secure flow of Persian Gulf oil is today. Another imperative is that South Asian countries develop the capacity to feed their rapidly growing populations; otherwise, the resulting social and political unrest and refugee flows will threaten regional and international peace and stability. Such long-term and seemingly indirect considerations need increasingly to shape American thinking about foreign policy.

In sum, Americans must take a fresh look at South Asia, because the region will become more important, even vital, to American welfare and security.

RECOMMENDATIONS

If the United States is to advance its interests in South Asia, U.S. policy toward the region should follow certain broad guidelines:

• Develop a broad, balanced, and integrated strategy toward South Asia that is sustainable over the long term. In particular, the United States should refrain from focusing on only one or two issues in the region. Such an approach would likely be counterproductive and might negatively affect the ability of the United States to pursue its overall interests in the region.
• Avoid "tilts" in U.S. dealings with South Asia, while giving due recognition to the size and potential of India in the region and beyond.
• Accord a prominent position to the role of the private sector in U.S.—South Asia relations. Given the constraints on U.S. government resources, businesses, nongovernmental organizations, the media, universities, and foundations should be encouraged to assume a greater role in bilateral relations.
• In dealing with sensitive issues, work through established international and multilateral institutions and mechanisms wherever possible, emphasize private dialogue, avoid public confrontation, and recognize the limits of U.S. influence.

By following these guidelines, and with the goodwill of the region, the United States and South Asia can build a new, more cooperative relationship in the 21st century.