Rapporteur, Satu Limaye

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

New opportunities are emerging for constructive and consistent ties between the United States and South Asia. The ending of the cold war removed the ideological and geostrategic factors that shaped earlier U.S. policy in the region. The expansion of democracy and the growing openness of South Asia's economies have provided the basis to increase cooperation substantially in areas of common concern and mutual benefit.

United States—South Asia relations have in the past been marked by divergent perspectives and aims. Overcoming this legacy will take time and effort. However, a reservoir of goodwill toward the United States exists in South Asia.

The task of The Asia Society's study mission to South Asia was to learn South Asian views on key issues, explore the possibilities for greater U.S.—South Asia interaction, and make recommendations about current and future U.S. interests and priorities in South Asia.

SOUTH ASIA AND THE UNITED STATES

South Asia suffers from stereotypes. Americans have tended to regard the region as one of poverty, overpopulation, ethnic and religious conflict, and natural disasters. Contrary to prevailing American perceptions, South Asia is important to the United States and offers both short- and long-term opportunities. American businesses can benefit from the region's economic opening and growth. American universities, think tanks, and nongovernmental organizations can widen their agendas and impact through collaboration with their South Asian counterparts.

South Asia's fate will increasingly influence the world Americans and others live in. It is a region where the issues likely to dominate international relations in the 21st century come together and where 20 percent of humanity lives. U.S. interests will be served if South Asia achieves sufficiently rapid, well-distributed and sustainable economic growth, reduces poverty, expands democracy, prevents regional conflict and the use of weapons of mass destruction, protects its own and the global environment, limits population growth, advances human rights, and reduces narcotics trafficking and terrorism. But if little or no progress is made in South Asia toward these goals, the world will almost certainly be a more dangerous and unstable place, with obvious negative implications for the United States.

If the United States is to advance its interests in South Asia, U.S. policy toward the region should follow certain broad guidelines:

ECONOMICS

The most important U.S. interest in South Asia is continued economic reform leading to faster and well-distributed growth. Economic relations should therefore be the focal point of U.S. engagement with the region.

Successful economic reform and deregulation in South Asia will offer extensive commercial opportunities for the United States, especially in India. The region's huge emerging market, strong institutional and legal frameworks, English-speaking professional and entrepreneurial class, and impressive scientific and technical skills are among its attractions.

The long-standing economic presence of the United States in the region and its heightened activity in the wake of recent reforms have given it a comparative advantage vis-à-vis Europe and Japan. Enhanced economic ties will help moderate U.S.—South Asian political discord and create a deeper private and public engagement between the United States and the region.

Accelerated and equitable economic growth in South Asia will also transform the lives of millions in one of the world's poorest regions, and over time will help to limit population growth, decrease social unrest, enhance political stability, and reduce international tensions in the region.

To support and benefit from South Asia's economic reforms the United States should:

SOCIAL CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT

South Asian governments and peoples are working through democratic processes to improve their countries' social welfare. Given the scope of challenges and the extraordinary complexity of the region, this is a bold social experiment. It affects one-fifth of the human race and deserves international attention and support.

Some progress has already been made in limiting population growth and raising literacy levels. Environmental degradation is beginning to be addressed. However, much remains to be accomplished. A key requirement for addressing these social concerns is accelerated, well-distributed economic growth. At the same time, managing population growth must be a priority if environmental damage is to be avoided.

South Asia's social development is important to U. S. humanitarian, ideological, and pragmatic interests. Without such progress, there are likely to be global reverberations. For example, international efforts to limit global warming could be undermined by the region's rapid industrialization and urbanization. Successful social development, on the other hand, will highlight the effectiveness of democratic and free-market principles, serving an important American ideological interest. In areas such as environmental protection, poverty alleviation, urbanization, and minority rights, opportunities exist for shared learning between the United States and South Asia.

The United States can assist South Asian countries with their development challenges. To that end:

• The United States should maintain current levels of bilateral U.S. development assistance to South Asia despite resource constraints.
• U.S. nongovernmental organizations should expand their work with South Asian counterparts on a variety of development problems.
• U.S. universities should seek greater cooperation with institutions of higher learning in South Asia.
• The United States Information Service (USIS) should maintain, and if possible enhance, its libraries in the region.
• U.S. environmental organizations should make South Asia a main focus of their international activity through collaboration with South Asian environmental counterparts.
• South Asian and U.S. businesses and nongovernmental organizations should form a partnership to study the application of environmental technology in the region.
• American businesses should practice environmental responsibility in their dealings with South Asia.
• The United States should work more closely with South Asian countries in international environmental forums.
• The U.S. government and American nongovernmental organizations, foundations, and businesses should step up efforts, either directly or through international organizations, to help South Asians develop less destructive energy sources.

DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS

The enlargement of the community of democratic states that protect human rights is an increasingly important objective of U.S. foreign policy. American interests and values will be more secure in such a world. South Asia's size and conditions make it a critical area for the future of democracy and human rights. Moreover, if the aspirations of South Asia's people are respected and met, the long-term prospects for political stability, economic and social development, and peace will be enhanced, and this will contribute to overall U.S. objectives.

One of South Asia's most promising features during recent years has been the resilience and spread of democracy despite intense economic and social pressures. In India and Sri Lanka, democracy has persevered in the face of ethnic and religious conflict, political instability, and the assassination of government leaders. In Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, free and fair elections were held in August 1994 after years of military, authoritarian, or monarchical rule. The full promise of South Asian democracy has yet to be realized, but democracy is an important bond between the United States and the region that can and should be strengthened.

Human rights is a delicate issue. On the whole, South Asian societies have been and are committed to the rule of law and tolerance for diversity. While large numbers of human rights violations continue to be reported, systematic and sustained government-sanctioned violations have been rare in the history of independent South Asia. Ethnic and religious conflicts, the effects of poverty and illiteracy, and local disputes are the main causes of the region's human rights violations.

To support democracy and human rights in South Asia, the United States should:

• Highlight South Asia's achievements in strengthening democracy and human rights.
• Address concerns about human rights in South Asia primarily in the context of multilateral dialogues.
• Offer to help improve the existing institutions that have shown themselves most willing to address demonstrated human rights violations.
• Urge South Asian governments to allow representatives of international and U.S. human rights organizations to conduct independent investigations in cooperation with local groups.
• Establish exchanges between American and South Asian legislators.

SECURITY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Over the long term, economic and social development are the most compelling security challenges confronting the region. Social and political unrest will likely increase without progress in poverty alleviation, population control, literacy, and environmental protection. Such instability could pave the way for demagoguery, uncontrolled migration, and violent competition for scarce resources and exacerbate traditional security concerns emanating from nationalism and territorial disputes.

The most immediate threat to peace in South Asia is the conflict in Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan divert huge financial resources, vitally needed for economic and social development, into military spending. A future India-Pakistan conflict could conceivably involve the use of nuclear weapons and destabilize U.S. interests in surrounding regions. Although both governments deny having built nuclear weapons, both acknowledge their capacity to do so. Both are also developing missile delivery systems.

Opportunities for security collaboration between the United States and South Asian countries may expand with the end of the cold war. India and Pakistan in particular, because of their size, geographical location, and military capabilities, continue to have potentially important roles in regions stretching from the Middle East through Central Asia and from the Indian Ocean to Southeast Asia, where the United States also has important interests.

The nature and objectives of security cooperation will likely differ from those of an earlier era. It should consist of joint peacekeeping efforts under U.N. auspices, bilateral and multilateral dialogues on strategic concerns, and increased military-to-military contacts through educational and training programs and even joint exercises. Such low-key cooperation could increase mutual trust and enhance the prospects for more substantive security cooperation in the future.

Given the wide scope of security issues in South Asia, our recommendations fall into five broad categories.

1. South Asian Regional Cooperation

To promote South Asian regional cooperation, the United States should:

• Increase financial and technical support to South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)—initiated projects that would benefit all the countries of the region.
• Focus attention on cooperative efforts to harness and share more fully the river resources of eastern South Asia.
• Foster links between SAARC and other regional organizations.
• Facilitate regional confidence-building measures and dialogue to address longstanding regional disputes.

2. The Kashmir Dispute.

On India-Pakistan relations and the Kashmir dispute, the United States should:

• Continue to express concern about the potential for a wider India-Pakistan conflict, higher casualties, further human rights violations, and additional drains on economic resources to arise from the Kashmir dispute.
• Encourage the continuation and even expansion of official and nonofficial dialogues, within and outside the region, on the Kashmir dispute.

3. Nuclear Weapons and Missile Proliferation

Regarding India's and Pakistan's nuclear weapons and missile capabilities, the United States should:

• Address India's and Pakistan's nuclear weapons capabilities in the context of a global nonproliferation effort.
• Reexamine present policy concerning nuclear energy cooperation with India and Pakistan.
• Seek to engage India and Pakistan in bilateral and multilateral missile control initiatives.
• Continue government-to-government dialogues on nuclear and missile issues with India and Pakistan while encouraging an expansion of official and nonofficial dialogues.
• Assist India and Pakistan to avert accidental conventional war, if they are willing to receive such assistance.

4. United States—South Asia Security Cooperation

To enhance the level of U.S.—South Asia security cooperation, the United States should:

• Restore or increase international military education training (IMET) funding to South Asian countries.
• Arrange periodic, perhaps annual, "security consultative" meetings on a bilateral basis with South Asian nations.

5. South Asia and the World

To promote South Asia's fuller participation in international and regional groupings, the United States should:

• Keep under serious consideration India's inclusion in an expanded permanent Security Council membership.
• Support India's and Pakistan's inclusion in emerging economic and political organizations, especially in the Asia-Pacific.

ENHANCING PRIVATE-SECTOR ENGAGEMENT WITH SOUTH ASIA

One of the most hopeful aspects of future United States—South Asia relations is the increased opportunity for private-sector collaboration. Open markets and expanded democracy give American businesses, nongovernmental organizations, media, universities, and foundations a wider scope for cooperation with their South Asian counterparts. Vigorous private-sector collaboration will expand the constituencies with a stake in U.S.—South Asia relations.

In order to take advantage of these opportunities, U.S. private-sector organizations need to enhance their knowledge of South Asia and their capability to interact with the region. Over the past 25 years there has been an unfortunate decline in attention to South Asia across a wide range of U.S. institutions.

Another hopeful factor is the growth of the community of South Asian Americans, now numbering over one million. The South Asian community has just begun to be politically active and in the future will likely play a significant role in the U.S. policy process and in business and other professional linkages with South Asia.

To heighten the U.S. private sector's engagement with South Asia, we recommend that several initiatives by various U.S. organizations be undertaken.

• American nongovernmental organizations concerned with issues ranging from family planning to AIDS to environmental protection should seek ties with their South Asian counterparts.