Consequences of Trump's About Face on North Korea
Kevin Rudd on BBC News & CNN International
On May 25, 2018, ASPI President Kevin Rudd spoke with BBC News about the implications of U.S. President Donald Trump’s cancellation of the U.S.-North Korea summit, and what the implications are for all parties involved.
Rudd points out that the tone and content of Pyongyang’s response to the cancellation are “exceptionally conciliatory,” suggesting “a significant qualitative change. However, Rudd’s primary concern is that U.S. officials will now conclude that “diplomacy has failed” and reevaluate military options. There will also be fallout between the U.S. and its regional allies, particularly South Korea. President Moon must now “manage domestic politics, having created such expectations around these negotiations.” There is also “collateral damage” for U.S.-China relations, because President Trump has “effectively blamed China for changing Kim Jong Un’s mind” about the summit’s content. (5 min., 34 sec.)
It's impossible to predict if the June 12 Singapore summit will proceed. Or even a later substitute summit. But it's critical the US resolves its own position on whether denuclearisation by the North is a staged process over time, or a unilateral precondition @BBCNews @AsiaPolicy pic.twitter.com/Dh8EdxJxil
— Kevin Rudd (@MrKRudd) May 26, 2018
Rudd also discussed the causes of the U.S. decision in an interview with CNN International’s Hala Gorani on May 24, 2018.
He explains that the sudden cancellation stemmed from the U.S. “changing strategic track.” At first, the U.S. was willing to share ‘an agreed, mutual ambiguity over the term ‘denuclearization’” with North Korea. However, with John Bolton’s ascent as National Security Advisor, the U.S. then “became very explicit” about wanting comprehensive denuclearization, “the removal of everything the North Koreans have,” as a precondition for any negotiations. For this reason, Rudd worries that “diplomacy for the foreseeable future has run its course.” (8 min., 58 sec.)
Three points re end of the Trump-Kim summit. First, no real chance now of revival of diplomacy. Military options are back on the table. Second, US-South Korea relations likely to nose dive. Third, so too US-China relations. @cnni @HalaGorani @AsiaPolicy https://t.co/rQ8uWL4ykG
— Kevin Rudd (@MrKRudd) May 24, 2018