February 15th, 2022 by Akhil Bery | 22/08

What happened: Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar joined his counterparts, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Australian Foreign Minister Marisa Payne, and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, for the Quad foreign ministers meeting. This is the first time the four are meeting since the leaders met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September. The meeting comes at a time when the U.S. is focused on defusing the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, and Indian troops remain deployed against Chinese troops along their disputed border.

Why does it matter:

• Since the 2020 clashes between India and China, which left 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers dead, India’s relationship with China has deteriorated, resulting in India more openly embracing working with the U.S., while also deepening partnerships with Japan and Australia.
• The four countries are brought together by shared concerns about China and are seeking to complement existing partnerships in the Indo-Pacific; the Quad is focused on vaccine diplomacy efforts, countering disinformation, climate change, and collaborating on supply chain resiliency and critical and emerging technologies.
• Notably, this was the first time that the ministers released a joint statement (the leaders have previously released two joint statements). It is another signal of India’s commitment to the Quad and the broader Indo-Pacific framework as India was previously a hold-out on a joint ministerial statement.
• However, there are limits to this partnership; first, India’s definition of the Indo-Pacific is from “the shores of Africa to that of the Americas,” but its main focus is on the Indian Ocean — while the U.S., Japan, and Australia are more concerned about the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, where China is more aggressive.
• Second, the U.S., Japan, and Australia are closely linked together both economically and militarily, while India has traditionally been seen as the weak link in the partnership; however, it has taken steps to dissuade those concerns, most notably inviting Australia for the annual Malabar naval exercise, which was seen as a litmus test for India’s commitment to the Quad.
• For the immediate future, though, the Quad will form the backbone of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, and India’s concerns about China will ensure it remains engaged in the Quad; indeed, in a follow-up speech, Jaishankar criticized both China’s actions toward Australia, as well as stating that China’s disregard for written agreements is what has led to the current crisis on the Sino-Indian border.

Vaccine diplomacy:

• India’s priority is to focus on increasing the production of vaccines and distributing them around the region, using help from Japan and Australia.
• The vaccine diplomacy initiative is the most visible deliverable from the Quad countries so far and is heavily reliant on India to deliver one billion doses this year — India wants to show that it is a reliable partner here but also showcase its manufacturing capabilities.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi has prioritized improving India’s manufacturing capabilities and inserting India into global supply chains. For him, it is important that India delivers on its commitments to the region.

Ukraine:

• Though the foreign ministers did discuss the ongoing Ukraine crisis and the joint statement mentioned “champion[ing] the free, open, and inclusive rules-based order … that protects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of regional countries,” this language is directed towards China, and not Russia; India would not sign onto language that could be construed as critical of Russia.
• India has a strong relationship with Russia; about 62% of all Indian armaments imports come from Russia, thus India is hesitant to criticize Russia for its actions. India generally does not comment on territorial issues involving other countries, as it does not welcome any outside commentary on its own territorial issues with Pakistan.
• In an ideal world, India wants to see the U.S. and Russia get along and focus on how to deal with an increasingly belligerent China; furthermore, every time there is a flare-up between the U.S. and Russia, it puts India in an awkward position of choosing not to comment, which is seen by both the U.S. and Russia as a tacit endorsement of Russia’s position.

The Bottom Line: The Quad countries are brought together by shared concerns about China, and the Quad seems to be here to stay. From India’s perspective, tensions with China are not likely to be resolved anytime soon, and the China factor is what has pushed India to more openly embrace groupings such as the Quad. In the past, India was concerned about antagonizing China and was wary of being a part of anything that could be perceived to be “anti-China.” After the Galwan Valley clash, India has been more willing to be vocal about its China challenge. That includes deepening its relationship with the other Quad countries, while also being more openly antagonistic toward China, including placing restrictions on the ability of Chinese firms to invest in India and outright banning Chinese mobile applications.